Film as an Asset Class — STREET SILHOUETTES

In 2016, a 1995 Porsche 993 911 GT2 sold for $2.4 million. As far back as twenty years ago, a 993 GT2 would not be priced beyond its depreciated value. Why would it? The next model generation was always just around the corner. Clearly, that reduced demand and then values of pre-owned 993 GT2s. But then, something changed along the way. Porsche enthusiasts started to take interest in the 993 GT2. I mean, it is the ultimate expression of what a real Porsche is suppose to be. To them, there is only one true Porsche. And, that is the air cooled 911.

The 993 was the last of the air-cooled Porsche 911. That made it special. After the 993, the 911 was no longer a true 911. But to the folks at Zuffenhausen, that made no difference. They were too busy transforming the brand into one that only made the 911 into a brand that made an assortment of different non-real Porsches - ranging from the Porsche Boxster in 1996, followed by the Porsche Cayenne in 2002, and then the Porsche Panamera in 2009. Now, there is literally a kaleidoscope of different models catering to non-traditional Porsche buyers.

The heart of Porsche died after the 993’s model run, which is why the aforementioned 993 GT2 hit the gavel at a price more than the Porsche 918 - an exclusive limited production hypercar targeted to Porsche’s high roller customers. Fact is, the 918 or any other limited production model will never exceed the desire for the 993 GT2 because the folks at Zuffenhausen could always produce more or come out with a newer variation or iteration. This makes limited production models appear woefully commoditized, unlike the collectibility of the 993 GT2.

So, why am I writing about the folks at Zuffenhausen and their products? Well, it has to do with the price of film in the secondary market. It is following a similar pattern. Seriously! On eBay, there are listings of Fujifilm Provia going for $80 a roll with good expiration dates and promises of subzero storage. One wonders what variety of photographer would actually shoot a roll of Provia 400X at $80 a roll? That is more than $2 dollars a frame. For that kind of money, only deep pocketed collectors can afford the indulgence of shooting it. Or, would they?

It makes you wonder. Would collectors of expired film begin to display their collection in frost-free-glass-door freezers? Will they put them in the cellars next to their 1945 Château Mouton-Rothschild and Macallan Lalique 62 Year Old Single Malt? Who knows? A brick of well preserved inside-the-packaging Ektachrome 100 VS that has documentation proving its post-purchase-provenance of never having left the freezer after the expiration date could fetch a fortune in the open market. All the more reason not to thaw out what’s inside the freezer.

But, why would collectors buy discontinued film stock of good post-purchase-provenance? We know they are not going to load it. Of course not. They are not taking photos with it. In contrast, what they are doing is buying well preserved film for the potential of shooting it. After all, do you really expect collectors of 1945 Domaine de la Romanée-Conti to down their bottle? But, knowing that they can shoot it and knowing that others much less fortunate covet what they have makes discontinued film stock of good post-purchase-provenance valuable.

In that way, discontinued film stock of good post-purchase-provenance is becoming an asset class. I mean, if it looks like an asset class, it swims like an asset class, and it quacks like an asset class, it must therefore be an asset class. As such, what kind of film photographer would actually shoot their collection of asset class, if they paid many multiples in premium over its original suggested retail price? Fact is, an asset classes is not meant to be used. Rather, it is meant to be investment or speculative vehicle to grow wealth and maximize returns.

As an asset class, film stock of good post-purchase-provenance will be renamed. Calling it discontinued film, or expired film, or anything similar does not inspire the prospect of a bidding war. So in recognition of it being an actual asset class, film stock of good post-purchase-provenance will be re-designated as vintage film - as in vintage wines, cars, and watches. Once accepted as an asset class, investors will inevitably start to invest in film for the same misguided reason that they invest in cryptocurrencies - because it is an asset class - duh!

With more bidders in the open market, vintage film will be priced even more ridiculously out of reach for most if not all film folks, given that there will be more buyers of vintage film than there were before. And in a twist of fate, it is even conceivable that film folks with collections of vintage film might even begin considering selling their collection of film. I mean, in a hypothetical future where a roll of vintage film can go for $1000 per roll, the temptation to cash out is just too great. What impecunious film loyalist can resist the lure of that frenzied froth.

Well, at least Kodak is still producing Portra 800 - the color film I prefer during the shorter days of autumn. But, as I was shooting my last brick of Kodak Portra 800 - like I am drinking water - it dawned on me that there was no inventory of it anywhere in Hong Kong. Everywhere, it was out of stock I mean, this is Portra 800. It is not as if I am talking about discontinued film, like Fujifilm Provia 400X, Fujifilm Natura 1600, or Fujifilm Neopan 1600. I am just talking about some ordinary Portra 800 that always used to be in stock - film that you can always get.

Then, an awful thought entered my mind. What if the folks at Rochester stopped producing Portra 800? Could you imagine the outcry? Photographers around the world will start to stockpile in haste the last hurrah of retail level Portra 800. Once the inventory dries out, the secondary market will begin to weave its opportunistic web of profit taking. It will start with a modest premium. But over time, that inventory will also disappear, leading to more exuberant pricing. So with scarcity and demand, Portra 800 will ultimately become another collectable.

Can you imagine the day when Kodak Portra 800 becomes an asset class? The horror! The horror! Natural low light color film photography will all but cease to exist - unless you pay up for vintage film. But, would you really load it in your camera. When that fateful day comes, I suspect you won’t. No one would dare shoot Portra 800. It would be like drinking that bottle of Yamazaki Aged 55 Year Old Single Malt Whiskey. Once finished, it will be no more. There won’t be another one for you, owing to its rarity, unless you pay up again for more at Christies.

I know all this sounds rather fanciful. But remember, Fujifilm Provia 400X retailed for $20 dollars a roll a couple of years ago - give or take. Now, it’s being listed for four times its former manufacturer’s suggested retail price on eBay. Clearly, we would like to believe that no one would be daft enough to pay that exorbitant amount. But after a couple of months, the listing always disappears. Maybe the seller took down the listing. That is what we would like to believe. But, there’s always that voice in the back of our heads screaming that someone paid up.

In any event, does this mean I will stock up on Portra 800? It might not be the worst idea. That said, it’s not as if Portra 800 is inexpensive. And, it’s not as if I do not shoot many rolls of it, during the darker autumn and winter months. I mean, there is this dog and pony show, with its extremely voracious appetite for Kodak products. As such, I do not know if it is possible for me to stockpile a strategic film reserve - given a burn rate of six rolls per week. Thing is, the minute Kodak discontinues Portra 800 - making it an asset class - I know what will happen.

I won’t shoot my strategic reserve. How could I? With Portra 800 becoming an asset class, I could never justify the splurge. I can never again shoot it like a commodity. I can never buy it at the retail level - at any store. Thus, I would likely enjoy whatever I have in deep freeze by admiring my collection in a frost-free-glass door freezer. But from time to time, like a fine vintage wine, I might take one out and free it from cold storage. That said - as the years pass - the precipitous rise in valuation will make each subsequent indulgence prohibitively unlikely.

So like a wine collector, I will find pleasure in the potential of shooting my vintage film. That will keep me warm at night. And when I depart this world, I will have a freezer full of asset class to pass down to my descendants. It is truly sad that this is the case, given that film is made to be used… made to be enjoyed… and made to take photos. Having it live out the rest of its existence warming the benches in deep freeze just for that chance that it might take photos is a miscarriage of intent. But then, you recall its value and submit to financial realities.

Until then, I will continue to shoot Portra 800 like I am drinking water. I mean, it is not discontinued and it is still sold in stores - when in stock. So, why not. Had I not treated it like a commodity, I would not have had this very fruitful photowalk. That said, how many more days until the folks at Rochester decide to rationalize its product offering. It only makes sense for all of us to shoot more Portra 800. Maybe if it continues to be profitable, it will not become an asset class. But if it does, at least you know that you have shot your fill of it. That’s priceless!

Admittedly, I know that Portra 800 and other discontinued film of good post-purchase-provenance do not rise to the investment and speculative standard of the 993 GT2 - let alone 60 year old aged scotch whiskey and 80 year old vintage wine. That said, the price of discontinued film of good post-purchase-provenance is spiraling dizzily upward like an asset class. And like I said, if it looks, swims, and quacks like an asset class, then it has to in some way be recognized as a potential asset class.

Besides, vintage film is what collectors load in their vintage cameras when attending Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance with their 993 GT2. After all, it is the only time they bring our their asset class for actual use… well… sort of.

Special thanks to Ania for accompanying me on this very fruitful photowalk. It was priceless.

Disclaimer

Dec 4 Film as an Asset Class

Disclaimer

Dec 4 Film as an Asset Class

Dec 5 Making Sense of Film Photography

Nov 25 The Real Reason for our Love of Gear